This offense needs some help, real bad

And we're back! Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and didn't miss me too much. We got a new NFL week on our hands, so let's get right into it...

Starting things off with TNF, we got the Bills vs Patriots. Just looking at the past two seasons, the Bills have had the Patriots number. So I’m gonna ride with their track record here.

Bills are 4-1 when facing the Pats and are outscoring them on average 30 to 16 in those matchups.

The eyeball test shows Buffalo as a much more complete team. They score 25% more points than the league average and give up 25% less points.

That said, New England defense is a top 5 team in passing completions and top 10 in most defensive categories. If they apply pressure, they could make it harder on Josh Allen and his talented receiving core than you would think.

The real problem here is the Patriots offense. They are classified as mid to bad.

Even more embarrassing? Their red zone percentage. It's the second worst in the league.

Even if they manage to get to the 20-yard line, it's very likely they’re kicking field goals here.

With both teams having a fair amount of players out, you gotta keep those injuries in mind too. Josh Allen still deals with that elbow issue, and other teammates like Edmunds, Diggs, and Von Miller were limited at practice.

On the Patriot’s injury report, you got Damien Harris, Peppers, Mac Jones, and DeVante Parker.

Now for the betting… because that’s why we’re all here, right? The Bills are 5-5 ATS while the Pats are 6-4.

When Buffalo needs to cover 4 points this season, they hit at a 45.5% rate (5/11 games). If you're looking at the total, over 43.5 is hitting at 54.5% for Buffalo.

As for props, I’m calling Mac Jones to throw under 1.5 passing TD's. That's already been hitting at 87.5% (7/8 games) going against this Bills defense. I see that trend continuing.

All factors in mind, I’m gonna take the Bills in this not-so-boring Thursday Night game.

The Line (via PointsBet): Bills -4(-107) O/U 43.5 (-107, both ways) Bills ML -180, Patriots ML +150

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• 😂 This is one sight to see on the sidelines

• 👀 Is this dude the secret weapon?

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• 💰Take some advice, get on the winning team

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