🤑 6 Best Bets in College Football this Weekend

PLUS: Can the Dolphins Cover the Spread?

Author

Andy Elliott
September 29, 2023

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HELLO my young brother and sister in arms! I don’t know about you but last week was a hitter for your boy…sweated out the -1.5 Florida State Seminoles in OT against Clemson in Death Valley, smacked the -7 Crimson Tide in T-town, and capped the weekend off in a parlay with Notre Dame covering the 3.5 and the UNDER 55…what a game!

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That said! The wood has been knocked on as we look forward to another action-packed weekend of college football…and some NFL games that require our attention. Can you guess who we lost some value on for an anytime touchdown scorer after last weekend? Below are the best bets and games to watch this weekend in my humble opinion.

BUT FIRST…

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🏈 College Football Week 5 Best Bets & Games to Watch

#10 Utah @ #19 Oregon State (-4.5)

Friday | 9 PM EST | FS1

🤑 Lines 🤑

WHY OREGON STATE CAN LAY THE POINTS

👉 Oregon State has won 6 consecutive wins and 13 of the last 14 games

👉 The run game is averaging 224.8 rushing yards per game, which is the second-best in the Pac-12 and ninth-best in the country

👉 Utah is 4-8 ATS over the last 12 meetings versus Oregon State

WHY UTAH CAN COVER THE SPREAD

👉 Utah’s defense is top tier and ranks among the best in the nation, allowing only 9.5 points per game

👉 They lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense, holding #22 UCLA last weekend to only 7 points

👉 Defensive end Jonah Elliss leads the nation in sacks with 5.5 and recorded 3.5 sacks and five tackles against UCLA

#2 Michigan (-17) @ Nebraska

Saturday | 3:30 PM EST | FOX

🤑 Lines 🤑

WHY MICHIGAN CAN LAY THE POINTS

👉 Michigan’s defense permits 5.3 points per game and allowed two touchdowns through four games, both the best in the NCAA

👉 In Nebraska’s two losses at Minnesota and Colorado, the Cornhuskers scored 10 and 14 points this season, not to mention Nebraska ranks 119th in turnover margin (-5)

👉 Nebraska scored 3, 29, and 10 points in the last three meetings versus Michigan

WHY NEBRASKA CAN COVER THE SPREAD

👉 I don’t have much here to be honest…Nebraska’s last victory over an AP top-10 team was against #6 Michigan State in 2015

👉 And they’re most recent win against an AP top-five team was at home against #2 Oklahoma in 2001…

👉 Coach Rhule seeks one of the biggest wins in his career if they can find a way to stay close

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#6 Penn State (-27) @ Northwestern

Saturday | Noon EST | BTN

🤑 Lines 🤑

WHY PENN STATE CAN LAY THE POINTS

👉 Penn State has been a top-25 unit, ranking best by allowing only 219.5 yards per game

👉 The offense ranks 33rd with 449.8 yards per game

👉 In 3 of the past 4 meetings between Penn State and Northwestern, the Wildcats have scored six or seven points in three of those contests

WHY NORTHWESTERN CAN COVER THE SPREAD

👉 Northwestern is 2-1-0 ATS this season

👉 Each of Northwestern's three game with a set total have hit the over

👉 Northwestern has split the two games it has played as underdogs this season

Michigan State @ Iowa (-12.5)

Saturday | 7:30 PM EST | NBC

🤑 Lines 🤑

WHY IOWA CAN LAY THE POINTS

👉 Iowa is looking for a bounce-back game at home after the embarrassing 31-0 loss to Penn State

👉 Michigan State scored 7 and 9 points in their two losses to Maryland and Washington this season, plus lost 49-7 on the last trip to Iowa (2020)

👉 Iowa is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline

WHY MICHIGAN STATE CAN COVER THE SPREAD

👉 Michigan State is 2-2 ATS this college football season

BETTING TRENDS

👉 Iowa has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games

👉Michigan State is 3-1 when betting the Under

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#11 Notre Dame (-5.5) @ #17 Duke

Saturday | 7:30 PM EST | ABC

🤑 Lines 🤑

WHY NOTRE DAME CAN LAY THE POINTS

👉 Notre Dame could be undefeated with a little better clock management against Ohio State…look for this to be a huge bounce back game against a solid team

👉 the Fighting Irish are 4-1 SU and ATS this season so far

👉 Notre Dame has covered the spread in 8 of their last 14 games

👉 Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game this season — fifth-best among FBS defenses

WHY DUKE CAN COVER THE SPREAD

👉 Duke is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season

👉 Duke has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games

👉 Duke is 10-2 (.625) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2022 season– 8th-best among Power 5 Teams

#24 Kansas @ #3 Texas (-16.5)

Saturday | 3:30 PM EST | ABC

🤑 Lines 🤑

WHY TEXAS CAN LAY THE POINTS

👉 The Longhorns rank top 15 in scoring defense, holding opponents to just 12.5 points per game

👉 Defensive tackle T'vondre Sweat has held opponents top 2.7 yards per carry

👉 Quinn Ewers looks like a top quarterback in the Big 12 and will need a victory to stay on Heisman track

WHY KANSAS CAN COVER THE SPREAD

👉 Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is one of the most underrated play-callers in the sport

👉 The Jayhawks rank among the top 15 power-conference teams in yards per play -- one spot behind Ohio State

👉 Playing at home gives the fighting Irish a chance to win this game

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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Sunday | 1 PM EST | CBS

🤑 Lines 🤑

WHY BUFFALO CAN LAY THE POINTS

👉 The Bills are 2-1 ATS this season

👉 Buffalo has outscored its opponents 75-13 over the last two weeks

WHY MIAMI CAN COVER THE SPREAD

👉 The Dolphins are 3-0 ATS this season and 2-0 ATS on the road in 2023

👉 Miami enters this game off a 70-point showing against the Denver Broncos

👉 The Dolphins have scored 130 points in three games, and they lead the NFL in yards per play

👉 In the last 4 of 6 games, the Buffalo Bills have not covered the Point

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